DC WRAP: Are You The One? S5 - "Tyranny For Love"

BY DC CUEVA                     

■ @DC408Dxtr  @ TW / IG / YT

As all of you recover from the epic that was Super Bowl LI last night, we at DCBLOG have a cure for that Super Sunday hangover as we welcome you on back here for the second of our two Are You The One posts covering Episode 4 from this past week. In case you missed it, we got to see Taylor and Shannon get close as did Taylor and Andre, while Edward find himself in the middle of Kam and Alicia's attraction. We also had to endure another non-match not only staying together but also going into the Boom Boom Room in Hayden & Gianna. And we saw the group's best hope to be a perfect match in Tyranny & Osvaldo go unanswered, but the group keeping steady in the light department.

   Ahead, some analysis from the Strategy Room of this week's picks plus a fan's incredible math on coming up with the possibilities of who could become matches, along with fantasy scoring and poll results. And there's two new babies to discuss in ExtraTime...more on all those ahead.

 STRATEGY ROOM 

AFTER WEEK 3...

First, here's who picked who in the Matchup...

WEEK 4 (Guys' Pick)

Mike & Kam

Ozzy & Hannah

Osvaldo & Taylor

Andre & Casandra

Edward & Alicia

Joey & Kathryn

Derrick & Gianna

Tyler & Shannon

Michael & Kari

Hayden & Carolina

Jaylan & Tyranny

►FOUR BEAMS

Italics denote repeat pick from Week 3

And here's this week's Twitter poll result...

Who should Tyler move forward
with in the AYTO house?
● SHANNON              75% 
● TAYLOR                 25%
  OUT OF 36 VOTES

♥ Our analysis of this week's picks will suggest that most of the guys picked randomly, but three couples from Week 3 stayed together to pick in Week 4: Joey & Kathryn, Tyler & Shannon and Hayden & Carolina.
♥ None of the three remaining couples who were paired in weeks 1 and 3 paired up in this week's Matchup and haven't gone to the Truth Booth (Casandra & Jaylen, Kam & Eddie and Gianna & Ozzy), but in still having four beams now comes the possibility of the three above couples being probable matches plus a fourth additional one who hasn't been paired up until this week.

The strategy the group might now look at as they approach week 5 is that if they can get those three Week 3 & 4 couples and those remaining three from Weeks 1 & 3 to stay together, they can see who might be matches and who they could put into the Truth Booth and pick up that much-needed perfect match.
   In the show's four previous seasons, no group has entered the season's second half without putting someone in the Honeymoon Suites: Season 1 saw Dillan & Coleysia go in after Week 5, then Pratt & Paris in week 4 of Season 2; Season 3's Connor & Chelsey in Week 5 and Cameron & Mikala last season in week 3. Team 22 will obviously need that first light to appear before the lights dim at the end of this coming week.

NICK's MATCH PROBABILITIES

From that to this: there's an AYTO fan on Twitter named Nick Uhlenhuth, who you can follow at @nickuhlenhuth, and who takes advantage of his spare time to do math and calculate who he thinks are the likeliest and unlikeliest of perfect matches. Each week on his Twitter account, he posts a spreadsheet coded in dark and light red, white and green of who he thinks are perfect matches. He also does probabilities of who could be matches during the episodes themselves.

Here are some of the results of his findings...
♥ Nick's likeliest chance of a perfect match in this house is Hayden & Carolina, who stand at his standings at 71%, which if they would be put into the Truth Booth and emerge a match will likely cause a Shanley or Briana-like scene in the living room of them being in tears while the rest of the house would be up in cheering getting close to the money.
♥ Tied for second in Nick's calculations at 62% are Tyler & Shannon and Joey & Kathryn. In fourth place on the list is Ozzy & Casandra, being pegged in at an even-money 50%. Kam & Edward round out the top five at 46%, while his other likeliest match would be Alicia at 25%, for which he is the subject of this week's MTV.com poll.
♥ Other probables with chances numbering above a 1-in-4 chance of being a match include: Andre & Casandra at 26%, Jaylen w/ Casandra at 43% and Tyranny 28% (she was rated at 43% with Osvaldo heading into the TB), Michael & Kari 30%, and Osvaldo & Taylor at 39%.

SOURCE: https://twitter.com/nickuhlenhuth

 FANTASY TRAX 

More stats in this week's Fantasy League scoring...

►WEEKLY POINT SCORERS
T-1. TYRANNY & OSVALDO: 65 Points each
T-3. TYLER and HAYDEN: 45 Points each
T-5. JOEY, KATHRYN & TAYLOR: 40 Points each
   8. SHANNON: 30 Points
T-9. ALICIA, EDWARD & KAM: 25 Points each
 12. GIANNA: 20 Points

►TOP 10 TOTAL SCORERS
   1. JOEY: 110 Points
   2. CAROLINA: 100 Points
T-3. HAYDEN, KATHRYN & OSVALDO: 85 Points each
   6. ALICIA: 75 Points
T-7. ANDRE and TYRANNY: 70 Points each
T-8. TAYLOR and TYLER: 65 Points each
T-9: Three tied at 25 Points

►THE WEEK'S NOTABLES
● TYRANNY & OSVALDO: Tyranny and Osvaldo are the week's top scorers with 65 Points each, as both earn 45 Competition points: 20 points for going on the getaway date, 5 for winning the challenge, and 20 for being chosen for the Truth Booth. Additionally, She scores 5 points for crying in the Booth after being a no-match, while he gets 20 Drama points for getting swerved by Taylor at the Matchup as he moves into a tie for 3rd in the overall standings.

● HAYDEN & GIANNA: In adding to their ongoing love affair, Hayden & Gianna each earn 20 Romance points in 15 for hooking up in the confessional and 5 for hooking up with their non-match. He also picks up 25 points for getting slapped on the butt by Carolina in bed as he moves into a tie for 3rd in the overall points table.

● TYLER, TAYLOR & SHANNON: As the three are part of a love triangle, Tyler, Taylor and Shannon all earn 25 points for being in that threesome. He also scores 20 for getting swerved by Taylor at the matchup, while both girls notch 5 points each for crying during the episode, and Taylor gets 10 extra for mentioning an ex.

● JOEY & KATHRYN: Joey and Kathryn score 25 competition points for him scoring the final bucket to go on the getaway date (20) and them winning the challenge (5); he leads the overall points leaderboard at 110 points and she is tied for 3rd at 85.

● ALICIA/KAM/EDWARD: The three each earn 25 points for being part of a love triangle.

•     •     •

 #DCExtraTime 

BABIES GALORE!

As they always say, good things come in threes. In this ExtraTime, how about three babies? Here you go...

CHEYENNE

IG @CheyNotShy

First, as we speak to you this February 6th, more celebration is in store for one half of Team Princess. This past weekend down in sunny SoCal, family and friends held a baby shower for Cheyenne of AYTO Season 3 and Rivals III as she nears the birth of Baby Ryder in a few weeks from now. In addition to those in her inner circle, she was joined for the weekend's festivities by four members of her original cast as Chey Not Shy was joined by her Rivals partner and the man who executed that Brady-esque comeback in Hawaii Devin, that entrepreneur destined to make a million dollars Austin and one of the two couples still together from that season - Hannah & Zak. As it turns out - over a year after that season aired, Team Ohana has turned out to become the latest piece of MTV casting gold, proof being seeing Mike on Real World Bad Blood and Hunter joining Nelson on tomorrow's Challenge, among others.
   Chey captioned in the above Instagram post, "yesterday was absolutely perfect.. thank you to everyone who came to celebrate baby Ryder 💕🎀 #RageRegardlessRy"  Below is an IG video of Zak, Devin, Hannah visiting Cheyenne at that baby shower through SnapChat, and also embedded is a YouTube video from her birthday party/baby gender reveal party from last fall when a cupcake revealed that it was going to be a baby girl.

Congrats @cheynotshy can't wait to meet this little Princess 👸🏾😘

A video posted by ZAK LONGO⚡️ (@zaklongo) on Feb 4, 2017 at 5:06pm PST

JESSICA (AYTO Season 1)

IG @JessicaProngay

From one AYTO alum to another: this past week one member of that legendary original cast became the latest in the Trifecta community to become parents, and the third among her Season 1 cast. Last week, Jessica and her husband, Tom, welcomed in Easton Michael Prongay to the world.
   Jessica's caption on Instagram - for which it is from the picture on the right - read, "Welcome my sweet boy, Mommy & Daddy love you beyond comprehension!!! We are so blessed to be yours. ❤️ #1312017 #eastonmichael"
   Some of Jessica's fellow Original castmates and a member of the Season 2 cast gave her congrats:
● @iamadamkuhn: "Congrats Jess!"
● @ashleighmorghan: "Congrats Jess!!"
● @amberleediamond: "YEEESSSS!!!!! Congratulations mama bear 🐻"
● @kklusby: "Beyond happy for you both! Prayers and love for sweet baby Easton 💖"
● @wesbuckles: "Yaaaaaaaaaaaas congrats!!!!!"
● @ryanmalaty: "❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ welcome to the world"
● @jenniknapmiller: Congrats!!!! What an angel 💙 also in love with his name!! Enjoy!!

CHRIS GRAEBE (Road Rules South Pacific)

IG: @Graebe

For our third & last baby - and with a couple members of the former third leg of the Trifecta on this Challenge Invasion cast, you have to go all the way back to 2003 and Road Rules South Pacific for this one. Aside from Grimm star David Ginotuli, the most notable member of that Road Rules South Pacific cast was Abram - who was the subject of an ExtraTime In-Depth that looked at his Challenge career which began down under. The person who replaced Abe after his fight with Donnell was a man from the Midwest named Chris Graebe, who took his spot in the RV and ultimately was part of the final six who won the handsome reward, and also did one Challenge.
   Post-MTV, Chris has rededicated himself to serving the Lord's Savior as he is now a pastor in the Dallas area, helping teach the gospel to Christ's followers in the Metroplex. And this past week, with a simple Instagram caption he announced the following with his wife and their four kids: "Whelp... another Graebe Baby is coming, #5! So crazy & awesome! God is so good & we can't wait to meet this little person! #thankful #surprise #welikeeachother #alot"
   We here at DCBLOG send our congrats to Chris, Jessica and Cheyenne on this great news.

▪   ▪   ▪   ▪   ▪ 

And on that positive note, that will bring to a close this week's AYTO coverage. As we await what begins tomorrow in Thailand and then the next night in the Caribbean, there's a lot for those who cover the Trifecta to talk about, and here's you can hear and read them:
● Following last week's episode, AfterBuzz TV and hosts Lem Gonsalves and Nino llanera were joined in-studio by Kari and Kam as they discussed the episode and all else from these first four episodes. Check out that podcast here, plus past interviews the panel has had with Ozzy, Andre, Taylor and Hannah.
● After something called life interrupted the normal schedule of putting those posts out to everyone, this past week the MTV RHAP returned as host Ali Lasher, her AYTO co-host Adam Bongiovanni and RHAP boss Rob Casternino got together to discuss the past three episodes of the love fest, including the week 2 blackout, Tyler's womanizing ways, Gia & Hay's relationship and all else. Listen to their podcast here, and Brian Cohen will return for The Challenge this coming week.
● This past week, the Candy Dish podcast welcomed the Brain Candy duo or Susie and Sarah as they discussed their time on The Challenge, Real World, Road Rules and everything else from the reality TV world. Listen to that podcast here, plus their chat recently with Devin.
● For reading material: Hollywood Life, one of those main celeb gossip sites, had an interview with C.T. this past week where he revealed for the first time the reason he came onto this new season; that article located on that Hollywood Life site here.
● And for a unique local angle, The Advocate - the main newspaper in Baton Rouge, Louisiana -spoke to Tony about this upcoming season, his time on MTV and, of course, parenting. Check out the post here, and we'll be including more articles on the cast, especially from their hometowns.
● Finally, if you're a broader MTV fan, last week Just Sayin', the relationship-themed pod hosted by Jersey Shore alum Sammi Sweetheart and friend Clare Galterio, welcomed back to their show her old roommate Vinny as they discussed not just the show but also bachelor parties and sleepovers.

The rest of this week's DCBLOG posts now until the weekend will focus on the Invasion of the Champions coming to The Challenge, and tomorrow we plan to have the third & last of our preseason posts with a discussion on what's to come from Inside the Strategy Room, for which if this takes place I will announce my guest later today on @DC408Dxtr on Twitter. Be sure to tweet your questions to #AskDCBLOG or #DCChallenge by later tonight if you want a chance to have your voice heard on our Preview.
   In addition, later tonight there will also be an Forum editorial, which will offer me a opportunity to discuss in more detail something that is related to this season...you'll want to check out I what I have to say about something that has been bothering me in the lead-up to this season and would want to bring it out into the open just before this all begins.

That's it for now...thanks again for reading. And make sure to rejoin us here later when our coverage of the MTV Trifecta continues. See you then.

- I AM DC